After losing four of its last five games, No. 9 Syracuse (6-4, 1-2 Atlantic Coast) will host No. 11 North Carolina (7-4, 2-0) in the Carrier Dome at 4 p.m. on Saturday in its final conference regular season game.

The Orange is coming off an overtime loss, 10-9, to Cornell on Tuesday and has dropped from No. 3 down to No. 9 in the last three weeks.

The Tar Heels most recently beat Virginia, 16-8, on Sunday. Syracuse’s only ACC win came against Virginia, 14-13, on March 4.

SU is tied for third place in the ACC standings. A win against UNC would guarantee the Orange a top-four finish and a spot in the conference tournament. With a loss to North Carolina, Syracuse would need Duke beat Virginia on Saturday or score 15 or more goals against the Cavaliers to avoid finishing last in the conference and missing the tournament.

All-time series: Syracuse leads 13-7

Last time they played: The Orange avenged a regular season loss to the Tar Heels by beating UNC, 9-8, in the ACC tournament semifinal on April 24, 2015 at PPL Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.

Syracuse’s Kevin Rice scored with under two minutes left to halt a three-goal North Carolina run and give Syracuse its last of four leads on the day. Less than two weeks earlier, SU had lost a 17-15 shootout to UNC, but the ACC semifinal matchup was more defensive with the two teams combining for 27 saves and 28 forced turnovers.

Dylan Donahue and Rice led the Orange’s attack with four points each. North Carolina’s Joey Sankey and Chad Tutton each had three points.

The North Carolina report: The Tar Heels boast a fourth-ranked offense that scores 13.6 goals per game and is powered by attack Steve Pontrello, who averages 2.9 goals per game, sixth best in the country. The senior started at midfield his first three seasons, but has scored as a starting attack in all 11 of the team’s games this year, including a high of six against Duke on April 1. Midfielder Luke Goldstock is UNC’s most balanced offensive weapon, scoring 17 goals and distributing 16 assists for the second-best point total on the team. Goldstock was a 50-goal scorer last season for the Tar Heels, but as Pontrello has emerged, Goldstock has transitioned into a bigger distributor role.

Defensively, Brian Balkam anchors North Carolina in goal. He’s allowing 9.3 goals per game and averaging 7.6 saves per contest. The goalie is coming off a career-high 14-save outing against Virginia on Sunday. The defense as a whole forces 10.9 turnovers per game, and is led in caused turnovers by Jack Rowlett, who has 10 on the season. UNC clears the ball at a below-average rate (84 percent), but its man-down defense is the second best in the nation, holding opponents to a 21 percent success rate. The only better man-down defense is Cornell’s, which SU lost to on Tuesday.

At the faceoff X, UNC’s Stephen Kelly is having the best season of his career. He’s won 68 percent of his faceoffs over the last six games and has only won fewer than half of his faceoffs in one game this year. Kelly’s risen to No. 3 on Patrick McEwen’s faceoff rating list. Syracuse’s Ben Williams sits at No. 6.

How North Carolina beats Syracuse: Overpowering an SU defense that has looked shaky at times this season is key for a Tar Heels win. North Carolina has plenty of firepower despite losing two starting attacks coming into the year. Syracuse has a goalie in net that’s making just his fourth career start and a defense that’s blown fourth quarter leads in three of its last five games.

UNC is undefeated when it scores at least 13 goals and 7-1 when it scores at least 10. The three times the Tar Heels were held under 10 goals this season, it lost.

If Kelly can dominate the faceoff X, a UNC victory will be almost inevitable. But the Tar Heels don’t need him to have a great game. SU is vulnerable even when it controls faceoffs. The Orange won 73 percent of the draws against Cornell, but still lost the game in overtime.

Numbers to know:
2.91 – Pontrello’s 2.91 goals per game is the best in the conference and sixth-best in the nation.

1991 – North Carolina has beaten Syracuse just once in seven trips to the Carrier Dome. The only win game in the 1991 NCAA tournament semifinal game between the teams. The Tar Heels went on to win the national championship that year.

60.2 – UNC has won 60.2 percent of its faceoffs this season, which is 11th best in the country. Syracuse has won 63.5 percent of its faceoffs.

Player to watch: Luke Goldstock.

Goldstock has the ability to light up the scoreboard, which he showed by scoring 50 goals last season. Though he’s evolved into more of a passer this year with one fewer assist than goals on the year, the potential is still there. If Syracuse’s defense focuses too much on Pontrello, expect Goldstock to have a big day. When the Orange defense was busy holding Myles Jones to four points when it played Duke, Deemer Class exploded for seven goals. When UNC beat SU last season, Goldstock led the Tar Heels with four goals.

Published on April 15, 2016 at 4:51 pm

Contact Jon: jrmettus@syr.edu | @jmettus